Need advice: apply for second choice now, when first choice is opening for applications in a few months?

I’m really not sure what to do in this situation. I’m employed now is a senior role with good compensation and benefits, but am not happy. It’s a bit of a story and combination of things. Anyway the job I’d like most will be opening up in a few months due to a planned retirement, however an even more senior role at a smaller company is open now. This one open now is my second choice. It’s a fair amount of effort to apply and go through the interview process and it’s a small region, so if I did apply and ended up success then turned it down it would leave a bad mark on my reputation. I’m a strong candidate for both... anyone want to share their thoughts or advice? I would sure appreciate it. Thank you.

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